At the core of Bitcoin’s value proposition lies its scarcity, a unique feature that sets it apart from traditional asset classes. Unlike fiat currencies subject to inflationary pressures from central authorities, Bitcoin boasts a capped supply of 21 million, a predetermined scarcity embedded in its protocol that shields it from manipulation by any central entity.
Historically, gold has been esteemed for its limited supply and inherent scarcity, but Bitcoin takes scarcity to new heights by offering unmatched transparency and predictability. Every four years, or 210,000 blocks, Bitcoin undergoes a halving, reducing the rate at which new coins are created and steadily approaching the fixed supply limit of 21 million.
Comparing Bitcoin to traditional assets like stocks and bonds reveals a marked contrast in supply dynamics. Stocks can be influenced by corporate decisions to issue new shares, buy back existing ones, or pay dividends, introducing an element of uncertainty. Similarly, the bond market is subject to central banks’ decisions to issue or retire bonds, further complicating supply predictability.
To grasp the significance of Bitcoin’s scarcity, consider its finite digital supply in contrast to the ever-growing US National Debt. The debt has surged by almost $3 trillion in the past year alone, a staggering increase when compared to the fixed supply of Bitcoin. The ratio of this increase to Bitcoin’s capped supply underscores the scarcity of the cryptocurrency and contributes to the argument for a continued rise in its price.
As of now, we find ourselves at less than 1% adoption, with less than 7% of Bitcoin left to be mined over the next 116 years. There are currently 40 million wallets with a non-zero balance, an adoption rate of approximately 0.75% when compared to the total addressable market of 5.3 billion internet users.
Breaking down the wallet distribution, 12 million hold 0.01 Bitcoin, 4.5 million hold 0.1 Bitcoin, and 1 million hold a whole Bitcoin. This suggests that while there may never be as many whole Bitcoin holders as the current number of deca-millionaires, Bitcoin’s distribution is broadening.
Remarkably, Bitcoin has swiftly risen to become the 16th largest currency globally in just 15 years, achieving this feat with less than 1% adoption within its total addressable market. Looking ahead, predictions suggest that by the estimated halving around 2028, Bitcoin could ascend to become one of the top 7 largest currencies, with a potential scenario where it reaches the 5th position. This rapid ascent underscores the growing recognition of Bitcoin’s scarcity and its transformative impact on the global financial landscape.
TLDR:
3 trillion (National Debt 1yr increase) / 21 million (bitcoin)= 142,857.143
The US Debt has increased by 142,857.143 times as many dollars in the last year as all the bitcoin that will ever be in existence.
https://timechainstats.com/
3/32 halving’s have occurred (9.375% only about 10% of the way through halving’s)
93% of supply in first 15 years, and a price that went from 0 to a top of $69k in 2021.
The Remaining 7% of supply will be mined over next 116 years.
There are currently 40 million wallets with non-zero balance, with 1.2 million daily active addresses.
The total addressable market is about 5.3 billion people (internet users).
If you take the 40 million wallets with a non-zero balance, and divide it by the total addressable market of 5.3 billion people… you get a current adoption rate of approximately 0.75%
We are at less than 1% adoption with less than 7% of bitcoin remaining to be mined over the next 116 years.
12 million wallets hold 0.01 bitcoin
4.5 million wallets hold 0.1 bitcoin
1 million wallets hold 1 bitcoin.
This is likely between 200k-500k individual people, most people have more than one wallet. There will never be as many whole coiners as the current number of deca-millionaires.
Currently bitcoin is ranked the 16th largest currency in the world, after only being around for about 15 years, and with less than 1% adoption by total addressable market.
https://www.fiatmarketcap.com/
I predict that before the estimated halving around 2028, that bitcoin will reach top 7 largest currency and I could even a scenario where it reaches #5 by 2028.