DIB 26 APR 2024

BTC Daily Intelligence Bulletin

Block: 840,947

DTG/ICOD: 0800EST 26Apr24

Precedence: Routine (RR)

Controls: Public Release

QQQQ

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BLUF: China-US Relations Not the Best / Mideast Countries Quietly Help Keep War at Bay / US Builds Pier in Gaza / SCOTUS Deliberating POTUS Immunities / US Colleges Still Protesting / FBI Warns Against Unlicensed Crypto Exchanges / IMF Issues a Positive Report on Bitcoin? / Money Flowing out of BTC ETFs / Inflation Up, GDP Down /

Market Data: Price: 1 BTC= $64,277, 27.39 oz Gold, .15 Median US House

24hr Hi: $65,275/ Lo: $62,783

Vol: $30B (Down 11%)

Mkt Cap: $1.27T (Up 1%)

HashRate: 586 EH/s

Avg Fees: 19,670 sats/tx (Up 128%)

Nodes: 19,179

—Reports—

-International Events-

1. China warns U.S. of ‘downward spiral’ as Blinken meets with Xi Jinping: Xi noted that this year is the 45th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and China, and said the two countries “should be partners rather than adversaries.” “The world is big enough to accommodate the simultaneous development and prosperity of both China and the United States,” he said. Xi said the relationship was beginning to stabilize but that “negative factors” were increasing. (NBC)

2. Is an Anti-Iran Alliance Emerging in the Middle East?: When Iran directed over 300 missiles and drones at Israel on April 13, Jordan helped fend off the attack. Initial media reports suggested that several other Arab states assisted in Israel’s defense, efforts they later denied. Ahead of Iran’s April 13 attack on Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) shared intelligence about the impending attack with the United States. A realistic near-term strategy will prioritize supporting area States’ ability to mediate—and prevent—future conflicts between Iran and Israel. (ForeignAffairs)

3. U.S. Begins Construction of Gaza Pier as Rafah Invasion Looms: U. S. troops began assembling a floating pier off the coast of northern Gaza, the Pentagon said, part of a Biden administration effort to open new paths for humanitarian aid ahead of a planned Israeli offensive in the city of Rafah. “We are on track to begin delivery of humanitarian assistance to Gaza, from the sea in early May,” a senior U.S. military official said. The risks of the pier initiative came into focus when it came under mortar fire by “various terrorist organizations.” (WSJ)

-US Events-

1. US Supreme Court divided on whether Trump can be prosecuted: For nearly three hours on Thursday, the Supreme Court weighed whether former presidents are immune from prosecution and what exactly it means if they are. Its answer will determine whether former President Donald Trump can be tried on charges of trying to subvert the 2020 election. Whatever the decision, each justice indicated that it would shape US democracy for years to come. (BBC)

2. US university protests Update: Pro-Palestinian/Hamas protests continue at major US universities where several schools have called police on protesters, leading to the arrests of up to 500 across the country. The University of Southern California canceled its main commencement ceremony next month. At least 33 people were detained at Indiana University while two professors were detained and dozens of protesters arrested at Emory University in Georgia, according to authorities. (CNN)

-Regulatory and Legal-

1. FBI warns Americans against using unregistered crypto money transmitting services: Americans should avoid crypto services from firms that are not registered as Money Services Businesses (MSBs) under federal law and do not follow anti-money laundering rules, according to a Thursday statement from the FBI’s Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3). “A few simple steps can prevent unintentional use of non-compliant services,” the FBI wrote in the release. “For example, avoid cryptocurrency money transmitting services that do not collect know your customer (KYC) information from customers when required.” (TheBlock)

2. Bitcoin’s Borderless Power: IMF Recognizes Positive Impact On Global Finance: Amidst economic turmoil and stringent regulations, citizens in countries like Argentina and Venezuela have turned to Bitcoin as a lifeline. The IMF has released a groundbreaking report titled “A Primer on Bitcoin Cross-Border Flows,” shedding light on the increasing relevance of the world’s most popular cryptocurrency in facilitating international financial exchanges. While recognizing the promising role of Bitcoin in fostering cross-border commerce and financial inclusion, the IMF report sounds a note of caution regarding regulatory oversight. The inherent anonymity of cryptocurrency transactions raises concerns about their potential misuse for illicit activities such as money laundering. (Bitcoinist)

-Institutional Concerns-

1. Fidelity’s spot bitcoin ETF records outflow for first time: Fidelity’s spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund saw daily net outflows of $22.61 million on Thursday, becoming the first day the ETF saw more funds move out since its January listing. Several other U.S. bitcoin funds reported daily outflows, totaling a drainage of $217.58 million. Franklin Templeton’s EZBC was the only fund that saw daily net inflows, drawing in $1.87 million.(TheBlock)

-Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC)-

1. Ex-Head of China’s Digital Yuan Effort Facing Government Probe: Yao Qian, the architect of China’s central bank digital currency (CBDC) project, is under investigation for ‘violations of discipline and law,’ Details of the allegations against Qian were not given. (CoinDesk)

-Economic Indicators-

1. US PCE Prices Rise More Than Expected in Q1: The core price index for personal consumption expenditures in the United States, which excludes food and energy, rose by an annualized 3.7% in the first quarter of 2024, accelerating from the 2% increase in the previous three-month period and above an estimate of 3.4% (TradingEconomics)

2. US GDP Growth Below Forecasts: The US economy expanded an annualized 1.6% in Q1 2024, compared to 3.4% in the previous quarter and below forecasts of 2.5%. It was the lowest growth since the contractions in the first half of 2022, the advance estimate showed. (TradingEconomics)

3. High inflation could be here to stay as commodity prices spike again after a 2-year decline, World Bank says: A striking divergence is emerging between global growth and commodity prices: despite relatively weaker global growth, commodity prices will most likely remain higher in 2024-25 than in the half-decade before the COVID-19 pandemic,” the World Bank’s deputy chief economist, Ayhan Kose, said. (MarketInsider)

-Security Incidents and Concerns-

1. El Salvador refutes rumors of Bitcoin wallet hack: Chivo Wallet, El Salvador’s official cryptocurrency wallet, has dismissed reports of a hack involving its software source code and the data of over 5 million users associated with its KYC procedures. (FinanceFeeds)

-Bitcoin Community-

1. Bitcoin miner Marathon Digital targets its hash rate to double in 2024: Starting 2024 with a total hash rate of around 24.7 exahash per second (EH/s) across its mining facilities, Marathon initially planned to increase its hash rate by around 46% during the year, targeting 35-37 EH/s. (TheBlock)

-Bitcoin Sentiment-

1. Fear(0)/Greed(100) Index: 70/100 (Down 2 pts)

Analyst Comments (AC): The recent spate of economic data suggests the world is in for some challenging times ahead. Increasing inflation, higher commodity prices, lower GDP, higher Debt/GDP ratios all suggest a possible stroll/run towards stagflation similar to the 1970s. The Japanese Yen just blew through the 155 Yen/USD mark and signifies some tough choices ahead since Japan is a primary holder of UST. The options are few for the US Fed but to increase liquidity via printing and hope for the best. Similar to economic headwinds like the 1970’s we can expect increased pressure on financial exits like commodities and now Bitcoin. This may possibily by the reason for increased attention the USG is giving to stablecoins, self-custody, and decentralized exchanges.