DIB 21 OCT 2024
BTC Daily Intelligence Bulletin (DIB)
Block: 866,701
DTG/ICOD: 0800EST 21Oct24
Precedence: Routine (RR)
Controls: Public Release
QQQQ
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BLUF: Israeli Airstrikes Hit Hezbollah Targets in Lebanon, Gaza Assault Continues / Cuban Power Grid Fails Amidst Hurricane Oscar, Protests Erupt Over Prolonged Outage / Putin Urges BRICS to Develop Alternative to SWIFT, Cautious on Unified Currency / Navy Declares F-18 Pilots Dead After Mount Rainier Crash / Bitcoin Surges Near $70K as Election Fuels Regulatory Optimism / ECB Warns Rising Bitcoin Prices Could Undermine Social Stability / US Fed Paper Calls for Taxes or Bans on Bitcoin to Protect Govt Debt / Eswatini’s Central Bank Releases Detailed Plans for Retail CBDC / PBOC Cuts Rates Again to Stimulate China’s Struggling Economy /
Market Data: Price: 1 BTC= $68,161, 25 oz Gold, .16 Median US House
24hr Hi: $69,462/ Lo: $68,101
Vol: $27.4B
Mkt Cap: $1.34T
HashRate: 719 EH/s
Avg Fees: 2,084 sats/tx
Nodes: 19,058
—Reports—
-International Events-
1. Israeli Strikes Continue: Israeli forces conducted extensive airstrikes across Lebanon on Sunday, targeting branches of Al-Qard al-Hasan, a financial institution associated with Hezbollah. The Israeli military warned civilians near these targets to evacuate, causing widespread displacement. Simultaneously, Israel continued its assault in northern Gaza, with a major overnight airstrike in Beit Lahia reportedly killing or injuring dozens of Palestinians. Hezbollah retaliated by launching approximately 160 rockets or drones into Israel by Sunday afternoon. The conflict has escalated following the recent killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in southern Gaza, with all parties signaling their intent to continue fighting despite international calls for de-escalation. (NYT)
2. Cuban Power Grid Collapses Again: Hurricane Oscar made landfall in eastern Cuba on Sunday, exacerbating the crisis for millions of Cubans already facing a nationwide power outage that has persisted for four days. The storm, which weakened to a tropical storm after landfall, is expected to bring heavy rainfall of up to 12 inches across eastern Cuba, potentially causing flooding and further complicating recovery efforts. Cuba’s power grid collapsed for the fourth time since Friday, leaving most of the country’s 10 million residents without electricity and struggling to maintain food supplies and access to water. Some Cubans have taken to the streets in protest, banging pots and pans and disrupting traffic, while President Miguel Diaz-Canel has criticized demonstrators for causing public disorder. The government has cancelled classes until Thursday and instructed non-essential workers to stay home, as officials blame the crisis on a combination of U.S. economic sanctions, recent hurricanes, and the poor state of the country’s infrastructure. (CNN)
3. Putin Emphasizes Need for Independent Financial System: Russian President Vladimir Putin has emphasized the need for BRICS nations to develop independent financial systems, particularly focusing on creating an alternative to the SWIFT messaging system for international settlements. While discussing the possibility of a unified BRICS currency, Putin urged caution, stating that the idea is not yet mature and requires a gradual, careful approach. The Russian leader highlighted ongoing efforts to expand the use of national currencies and create secure financial transaction tools within BRICS, aiming to strengthen financial partnerships while avoiding limitations imposed by existing global platforms. Putin’s remarks suggest a strategic move towards financial independence for BRICS nations, with a focus on developing systems that can operate outside of Western-dominated financial structures. The cautious approach to a common BRICS currency, coupled with the emphasis on alternative financial systems, indicates a long-term strategy to reduce reliance on the US dollar and Western financial institutions while gradually building BRICS’ economic influence. (Bitcoin com)
-US Events-
1. Navy Declares F-18 Pilots Dead: The U.S. Navy has officially declared two pilots dead following the crash of their EA-18G Growler jet near Mount Rainier, Washington, during a training flight on Tuesday. Search and rescue efforts, involving multiple agencies including U.S. Army Special Forces and Navy helicopters, transitioned to recovery operations on Sunday after crews reached the crash site at an elevation of 6,000 feet in a remote, heavily wooded area. The wreckage was initially spotted on Wednesday, but due to the challenging terrain, it took until Friday for teams to access the site. The identities of the pilots are being withheld pending notification of next of kin. The cause of the crash remains under investigation, and the Navy plans to continue debris recovery and long-term salvage efforts in the area. (The Washington Post)
-Regulatory and Legal-
1. Election Optimism Contributes to Bitcoin’s Rise: Bitcoin is experiencing a surge, approaching the $70,000 mark, driven by significant inflows into US spot-Bitcoin ETFs and optimism surrounding potential regulatory changes in the United States. The upcoming US presidential election on November 5 is fueling speculation about a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment, with both Republican and Democratic candidates showing varying degrees of support for the industry. Market sentiment is also being influenced by the election and the broader macroeconomic environment, with options markets indicating increased volatility around election day. Bitcoin’s recent performance includes a nearly 10% increase in the past week, marking its best weekly performance in over a month. The market is closely watching political developments, as the outcome of the election could potentially lead to regulatory clarity and further price increases for Bitcoin. (Cointrust)
2. ECB Attacks Bitcoin: Economists from the European Central Bank (ECB) argue in a new paper that perpetually rising Bitcoin prices would lead to societal impoverishment, benefiting early adopters at the expense of latecomers and non-holders. The paper, titled “The distributional consequences of Bitcoin,” contends that Bitcoin’s narrative has shifted from a global payment system to a speculative investment asset, which does not generate cash flow or contribute to economic productivity. The authors claim that even without a “bursting bubble” scenario, Bitcoin’s price appreciation would result in a zero-sum game, where early adopters’ gains come at the cost of others’ diminished consumption and wealth. The economists warn that this wealth redistribution could have detrimental consequences for society, potentially endangering cohesion, stability, and democracy. The paper has sparked criticism from Bitcoin holders, with analyst Tuur Demeester describing it as the most aggressive stance from authorities, suggesting that central banks now view Bitcoin as an existential threat. (The Block)
3. US Federal Reserve Attacks Bitcoin: A new paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis entitled “Unique Implementation of Permanent Primary Deficits?” argues that governments can sustain permanent deficits if consumers are risk-averse and do not react to alternative currencies like Bitcoin. However, when Bitcoin is traded, it introduces fiscal instability by creating multiple equilibria, making it difficult for the government to maintain a steady deficit and potentially forcing it to balance its budget. This disrupts the government’s ability to uniquely implement its fiscal policies. To counteract this, the authors propose legal prohibitions or special taxes on Bitcoin to ensure government debt remains the only risk-free security in the market. By eliminating or taxing Bitcoin, the government can prevent its competition as a store of value and maintain control over the fiscal environment. These measures would help restore the government’s capacity to implement permanent primary deficits without disruption from alternative currencies like Bitcoin. (U.S. Federal Reserve)
-Institutional Concerns-
1. NSTR
-Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC)-
1. Nation of Eswatini Expands on CBDC Plans: The Central Bank of the Kingdom of Eswatini has published a paper outlining the design principles for its potential retail central bank digital currency (CBDC), known as the digital lilangeni, focusing on offline capabilities, interoperability with existing payment methods, and cross-border transfers. Stated motivations for exploring the CBDC include providing secure access to central bank money, fostering payments digitalization, boosting financial inclusion, and creating new opportunities. The design emphasizes accessibility, with offline payments available for hardware wallet users, while hosted wallets will require online access and offer value-added services from banks and payment providers. The CBDC will feature pseudo-anonymity balancing privacy and compliance, no interest payments, and a holding cap to prevent commercial bank disintermediation. Despite the detailed design recommendations, the central bank has not yet made a final decision on issuing the CBDC, mirroring the cautious approach of other central banks worldwide. (CoinGeek)
-Economic Indicators-
1. PBOC Cuts Interest Rates: China’s central bank has cut its benchmark lending rates by 25 basis points, lowering the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) to 3.1% and the five-year LPR to 3.6%, a move that was anticipated following comments by PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng. This rate cut is part of a series of monetary stimulus measures, including potential further reductions in the reserve requirement ratio and cuts to other key rates, aimed at boosting China’s economy amid ongoing challenges in the property sector and weak consumer sentiment. While the rate cuts were expected, economists argue that they alone are insufficient to address China’s economic issues, with many calling for more substantial fiscal stimulus to tackle the lack of demand. The rate cuts come on the heels of China’s recent GDP report showing 4.6% year-on-year growth in the third quarter, slightly better than expected but still below the official target of about 5% for 2024. Despite these monetary measures, experts suggest that China’s real interest rates remain too high and anticipate further rate cuts in the coming year, especially as the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to lower its rates. (CNBC)
-Security Incidents and Concerns-
1. NSTR
-Bitcoin Community-
1. NSTR
-Bitcoin Sentiment-
1. Fear(0)/Greed(100) Index: 72/100 (Down 1 pts)
Analyst Comments (AC): Central bank attacks on Bitcoin appear to be increasing, and their willingness to say the quiet part out loud indicates growing concerns among central planners regarding the ability of their citizens to opt out of faltering currencies and bad fiscal policies.
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Analyst: BV2B
END REPORT
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*NSTR-Nothing Significant To Report